SOAP2 has many tools. This page puts them in order: a routine that takes you from "what kind of market is this?" to "where does my trade sit in it?", in about ten minutes, with one question per step and one place to look. Each step points to the hands-on guide for the detail. It needs no mathematics and no knowledge of the Greeks.
It is written for a trader at the screen and for an AI assistant asked "what is the market doing and what should I watch?" (§8): the assistant follows the same order and makes the same calls.
Read this first. A routine organises attention; it does not create an edge. Every tool in it is a model estimate with its own limits, and agreement between tools is not proof. The output of this routine is a set of conditions to watch and a list of what would change your mind, never a trade signal.
Work from the widest frame to the narrowest. Each layer sets the scale of the next, and a narrow tool read in isolation is easy to misjudge:
| Layer | Question | Tools | Guide |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Macro backdrop | What are rates saying? | Treasuries (SOFR path, yields, spreads) | — |
| 2. Volatility backdrop | How big a stage? When is the uncertainty? | ATM IV term, VIX term, expected move, rank | Volatility backdrop |
| 3. Skew | Which direction does the market fear? | HSkew, VSkew, Sticky Skew | Skew and term structure |
| 4. Positioning | How will hedging react to a move? | GEX / VEX, TRACE | GEX / VEX, TRACE |
| 5. Flow | Is hedging actually happening? | Hedging Flow | Hedging Flow |
| 6. Your trade | Where does my position sit in all this? | Risk Graph, trade review, probabilities, trade rules | — |
The result is a short note with five parts: backdrop, regime, levels, change, invalidation.
Is IB connected, what time is it in the market's session, and which symbols and accounts are open? Check which
windows are open: several of the tools below only have data when an Options Analysis window has run them.
AI: get_environment, optional.
The Treasuries report gives the market-implied policy path (SOFR futures), yields and curve spreads implied from
Treasury futures, and bill rates. Ask only: is the curve moving, and is policy repricing? It matters most on days around
central-bank decisions and rate data. Treasury-futures yields are an approximation, not cash yields; bill rates are
previous close. AI: get_treasuries.
Level, rank, expected move for your horizon, term structure (contango or backwardation, event bump), VIX curve.
Output of the step: "the stage is this wide, and the uncertainty is concentrated here."
AI: get_market_read (blocks vol, expected_move).
RR25, BF25 and their ratios to ATM; term slope; change against Previous and against recent days. Output:
"the market leans this way and has moved this much." AI: get_skew_read, plus
get_sticky_skew for the stickiness regime.
GEX regime, Flip distance, walls; then TRACE for the build-up toward expiry. Output: "the brake or the
accelerator is this far away, with these levels." AI: get_cboe_gex
(index-wide, with change since Previous), and for the live IB version run_analysis with
name="ib_gex" then get_market_read (positioning.gex); get_trace.
Is the Total moving, who is driving it, and does price agree? Output: "the pressure is, or is not, being
acted on." AI: get_market_read (positioning.hedging_flow).
Place breakevens, strikes and the Risk Graph against the levels from steps 2 to 4. AI: get_trade_review,
get_trade_probs, get_trade_rules. Details in §6.
| Part | One line |
|---|---|
| Backdrop | "Moderate IV, normal contango, ±X points to expiry." |
| Regime | "Brake regime, Y points above the Flip." |
| Levels | "Trigger at A, pin at B, acceleration zone at C." |
| Change | "Since last look: skew tilted put-ward; Flip moved closer; mechanical, same session." |
| Invalidation | "A close below A, or the front end rising above the back." |
Agreement between independent tools increases confidence a little. Disagreement is a reason to inspect inputs before choosing a view, never to pick the tool you prefer.
| Pattern | Reading |
|---|---|
| Calm contango, mild put skew, brake regime well above the Flip, flow quiet | A coherent calm picture. The risk is what is not priced: check the calendar. |
| Backwardation, steep put skew, price below the Flip, flow selling | A coherent stress picture. Expect wide, fast conditions; levels may be passed rather than respected. |
| Calm volatility, but price near the Flip with a tight corridor | Volatility says calm, positioning says fragile. Trust neither alone: the regime can change quickly on a small move. |
| Steep put skew, but brake regime and quiet flow | Protection is bid, yet hedging dampens moves. The two can coexist until a shock: skew is the insurance price, GEX is how the market behaves day to day. |
| GEX positive, TRACE shows a negative node building close below price toward expiry | Fine today, more fragile as expiry approaches. Do not extrapolate today's calm. |
| Flow strong, little exposure near price | Flow without a lever: it may not move price. |
| IV rank high, realised moves small | The market pays for uncertainty that has not arrived. Ask why: an event or a hedging bid. |
| Two tools use different datasets (live IB vs CBOE chain, different expiries) | Reconcile the inputs first. Do not average them. |
| When | Emphasis | Watch out for |
|---|---|---|
| Before the open | Macro, volatility term, skew from the previous close, GEX/TRACE from the previous session's open interest (CBOE chain). Plan levels and invalidations. | Index has no live last price pre-market; stored values are from the last session; flow has nothing yet. |
| Intraday | Change since last look (price, time, volatility: mechanical), flow, any new findings. | Open interest does not change intraday, so positioning shifts are mechanical. |
| Expiry day / OPEX | Same-day and monthly GEX scopes, TRACE first columns, pin candidates. | A large part of the exposure disappears at the roll; the next session's picture can look different. |
| Event day | Front-end event bump, VEX, skew before and after. | The premium leaves quickly; the volatility crush has its own hedging effect. |
| After the close | Review what happened against the levels you wrote down. This is how the tools earn or lose your trust. | One day proves nothing; keep a record. |
Once you have the backdrop, regime and levels, ask four questions of your position:
The trade review gives the position's risk numbers and the option-implied odds (probability of profit, of touching and finishing beyond each strike). Those odds are what today's option prices imply, not a forecast, and they use a flat ATM IV or the volatility surface (say which).
Invented to show the method. Not a forecast, not a real session.
| Step | What was found |
|---|---|
| 1 Macro | Treasury curve unchanged; no central-bank event this week. |
| 2 Volatility | ATM IV 16.5% at one week, rank 0.35; clean contango; VIX 16.0 below its first future (17.2). One-week range ≈ ±116 points. |
| 3 Skew | RR25 −3.9 (put skew), ratio −0.24, tilting more put-ward over the last hour; slope +0.8, still contango. |
| 4 Positioning | GEX +2.4 bn, 32 points above the Flip (4,968); pin at 5,050, acceleration zone at 4,900. TRACE: the positive node strengthens toward expiry. |
| 5 Flow | Total −$180 million (selling) over 90 minutes, put-driven; the lead/lag note says price was already moving. |
| 6 Trade | Short put spread 4,900/4,850, expiry in 9 trading days; breakeven 4,880. |
The note.
The note says what to watch. It does not say what to do.
get_offline_reports for stored files; say each file's age; give a clearly caveated initial read and suggest starting SOAP2.get_environment only when you need to know what is open or connected. Otherwise go straight to get_market_read (it works with its own defaults).get_cboe_gex (CBOE chain, index-wide, with Previous), the live IB version (run_analysis ib_gex then get_market_read), and get_trace (say which dataset). Never mix them in one comparison.run_analysis with name="comprehensive" on your own initiative: ask first, offering name="succinct".search_help and open with get_help_page).Backdrop (vol, 15:40 UTC): SPX ATM IV 16.5% at one week (rank 0.35); contango; VIX 16.0 below its first future. One-week range ≈ ±116 points (ATM IV ÷ 16 per day).
Skew: RR25 −3.9, ratio −0.24, tilting more put-ward vs 60 minutes ago (same session).
Regime (CBOE chain, data as of 15:44 UTC): net GEX +2.4 bn; Flip 4,968 (32 points below spot); walls 5,050 and 4,900.
Build (TRACE, CDN): the positive node strengthens toward expiry.
Flow (live IB, stored 15:40): Total −$180 million, put-driven; lead/lag: price was already moving.
Your trade: short strike 4,900 sits at the acceleration zone; breakeven 4,880 is just beyond the one-week ±1 sigma band.
Invalidation: acceptance below 4,968, or the front end rising above the back.
Caveats: dealer positions are assumed; data delayed where stated; ranges and odds are pricing statements; not a recommendation.
Go back to the main help page: SOAP2 Help Guide